RoRoRo's Tournament Predictions

• havannah.ch.7.4.1 updated 2012-02-04/17:27:51, 34/36 completed
• chess.ch.17.4.8 updated 2012-02-04/09:27:45, 29/36 completed
• hex.ch.28.3.4 updated 2012-02-03/17:28:05, 28/36 completed
• ut.hex19.508.1.1 updated 2012-02-03/17:27:50, 11/55 completed
• dots.ch.27.3.4 updated 2012-02-03/13:27:47, 31/36 completed
• ut.dots.479.1.3 updated 2012-02-02/17:27:22, 13/15 completed
• ut.soccer.400.2.1 updated 2012-02-02/09:28:10, 74/91 completed
• rev10.ch.15.2.1 updated 2012-02-02/09:27:51, 24/36 completed
• havannah.ch.7.1.1 updated 2012-02-02/09:27:39, 23/55 completed, published here
• ut.slither.543.1.1 updated 2012-02-02/03:43:32, 0/15 completed
• dots.ch.27.2.2 updated 2012-02-02/01:27:41, 21/36 completed
• ut.connect6.546.1.3 updated 2012-02-02/01:27:23, 6/15 completed
• chess.ch.17.4.7 updated 2012-02-01/17:27:41, 31/36 completed
• soccer.ch.23.2.2 updated 2012-02-01/05:27:52, 152/153 completed
• go19.cv.SUNJANG.2.3.4 updated 2012-01-31/17:28:23, 35/36 completed
• ut.einstein.423.1.1 updated 2012-01-31/17:27:40, 99/105 completed
• slither.ch.1.1.1 updated 2012-01-31/05:27:21, 20/36 completed, published here
• brkthr.ch.15.2.2 updated 2012-01-30/21:27:00, 30/36 completed
• ut.einstein.366.2.1 updated 2012-01-30/13:27:23, 71/78 completed
• einstein.ch.13.2.1 updated 2012-01-30/05:27:00, 16/36 completed
• brkthr.ch.15.2.1 updated 2012-01-30/01:26:31, 35/36 completed
• ut.shogi.326.2.1 updated 2012-01-29/17:27:02, 25/36 completed
• ut.go9.408.2.1 updated 2012-01-29/09:26:29, 27/28 completed
• slither.ch.1.3.3 updated 2012-01-29/01:26:24, 17/28 completed
• shogi.cv.MINISHOGI.4.1.1 updated 2012-01-28/17:26:22, 26/36 completed, published here
• dvonn.ch.19.3.1 updated 2012-01-28/01:27:33, 31/36 completed
• go13.ch.17.2.1 updated 2012-01-27/01:27:01, 22/45 completed
• go19.ch.10.3.1 updated 2012-01-25/13:28:32, 12/36 completed
• ut.go13.425.1.1 updated 2012-01-25/13:27:35, 9/10 completed
• go19.ch.10.5.11 updated 2012-01-25/13:26:59, 29/36 completed
• ut.go19.491.1.3 updated 2012-01-17/16:08:08, 8/15 completed
• twixt.ch.30.4.3 updated 2012-01-17/04:08:34, 8/28 completed
• gwg.ch.24.2.2 updated 2012-01-15/00:07:52, 43/45 completed
• fir.ch.29.3.3 updated 2012-01-14/12:08:00, 41/45 completed
• brkthr.ch.15.3.1 updated 2011-12-18/14:29:52, 33/36 completed
• ut.amzn.435.1.2 updated 2011-12-14/21:03:50, 20/21 completed
• ut.dvonn.389.2.1 updated 2011-12-01/21:37:08, 0/28 completed

Firstly, I estimate what the probability of a win/draw/loss is for each of the remaining games depending on the two players' current ratings. The accuracy of these probabilities varies from game to game. For example, I am aware of white's advantage, and that better players are better at forcing a draw with black in chess. I then run 50000 simulations of all of the remaining games, using those probabilities. Each time I order the players based on score and SON, and then work out who wins, who will get promoted, and who will get demoted.

If I show your probability of winning or drawing to be 0.00% or 100.00%, that means that in at least one of the simulations had a different outcome. However, if I show simply '0' or '100%', then every single one of the simulations achieved the same result.

If the table is in glorious technicolour, that means that I was able to model how much luck a player had in that game, and the colours are a heat-map of that luck.

Completed Tournaments

amzn.ch.21.3.2 amzn.ch.22.1.1 amzn.ch.22.2.2 amzn.ch.23.4.2 amzn.ch.25.4.3 amzn.ch.26.3.3
brkthr.ch.10.3.1 brkthr.ch.11.1.1 brkthr.ch.11.3.2 brkthr.ch.12.1.1 brkthr.ch.12.2.1 brkthr.ch.12.3.2 brkthr.ch.13.1.1 brkthr.ch.13.3.4 brkthr.ch.14.1.1 brkthr.ch.14.2.1 brkthr.ch.14.2.2 brkthr.ch.14.3.3 brkthr.ch.15.1.1 brkthr.ch.15.3.4 brkthr.ch.8.1.1 brkthr.ch.8.2.2 brkthr.ch.9.1.1 brkthr.ch.9.2.1 brkthr.mc.2010.may.2.1
chess.ch.15.2.2 chess.ch.15.5.1 chess.ch.16.5.3
connect6.ch.10.4.2 connect6.ch.11.4.3 connect6.ch.8.4.6 connect6.ch.9.5.5
dots.ch.17.1.1 dots.ch.17.2.1 dots.ch.18.1.1 dots.ch.18.2.1 dots.ch.19.1.1 dots.ch.19.2.1 dots.ch.19.3.3 dots.ch.19.3.4 dots.ch.21.2.1 dots.ch.22.3.3 dots.ch.22.3.4 dots.ch.22.4.2 dots.ch.23.2.1 dots.ch.24.4.1 dots.ch.25.3.1 dots.ch.25.4.3 dots.ch.26.2.2 dots.ch.26.3.1 dots.mc.2009.dec.1.5 dots.mc.2011.feb.2.1 dots.mc.2011.mar.1.8
dvonn.ch.13.3.1 dvonn.ch.15.1.1 dvonn.ch.15.2.2 dvonn.ch.16.1.1 dvonn.ch.16.4.1 dvonn.ch.16.4.3
einstein.ch.10.1.1 einstein.ch.10.2.2 einstein.ch.10.3.1 einstein.ch.10.4.2 einstein.ch.10.4.5 einstein.ch.10.4.7 einstein.ch.11.1.1 einstein.ch.11.2.1 einstein.ch.11.2.2 einstein.ch.11.3.3 einstein.ch.11.4.4 einstein.ch.12.1.1 einstein.ch.12.2.2 einstein.ch.12.3.3 einstein.ch.6.1.1 einstein.ch.7.1.1 einstein.ch.8.1.1 einstein.ch.8.5.2 einstein.ch.9.1.1 einstein.ch.9.3.4 einstein.ch.9.4.2 einstein.ch.9.4.8 einstein.mc.2007.dec.3.1 einstein.mc.2008.dec.2.1 einstein.mc.2009.jun.2.3 einstein.mc.2009.mar.3.1 einstein.mc.2009.may.2.3 einstein.mc.2009.nov.1.19 einstein.mc.2010.aug.2.2 einstein.mc.2010.feb.3.1
fir.ch.20.1.1 fir.ch.21.1.1 fir.ch.23.4.3 fir.ch.24.4.3 fir.ch.25.3.4 fir.ch.25.4.2 fir.ch.25.4.4 fir.ch.25.4.6 fir.ch.26.4.5 fir.ch.27.4.5 fir.ch.28.3.2 fir.ch.28.4.8 fir.ch.29.2.1 fir.mc.2010.dec.1.18
gmk.ch.12.1.1 gmk.ch.14.1.1 gmk.ch.16.5.4 gmk.ch.18.4.5 gmk.ch.19.3.3
go13.ch.14.5.9 go13.ch.15.4.6 go13.ch.16.4.5 go19.ch.8.4.5 go19.ch.8.6.1
go9.ch.20.4.3 go9.ch.23.5.7 go9.ch.23.5.9 go9.ch.25.5.11 go9.ch.26.3.1 go9.mc.2011.jul.1.10 go9.mc.2011.jul.2.1
gwg.ch.21.2.2 gwg.ch.21.3.3 gwg.ch.22.3.2 gwg.ch.23.2.1
havannah.ch.1.1.1 havannah.ch.4.4.2 havannah.ch.4.4.3 havannah.ch.5.1.1 havannah.ch.5.4.2 havannah.ch.6.1.1 havannah.ch.6.3.3
hex.ch.24.1.1 hex.ch.24.3.2 hex.ch.24.4.8 hex.ch.24.5.1 hex.ch.25.3.3 hex.ch.25.4.5 hex.ch.26.4.4 hex.ch.27.3.3 hex19.ch.11.4.1 hex19.ch.7.1.1 hex19.ch.9.1.1
loa.ch.10.1.1 loa.ch.12.1.1 loa.ch.14.3.2 loa.ch.15.1.1 loa.ch.16.1.1 loa.ch.17.3.2 loa.ch.18.2.2 loa.ch.19.1.1 loa.ch.9.1.1
oski.ch.1.1.1 oski.ch.2.1.1 oski.ch.3.3.3 oski.ch.4.2.1 oski.ch.5.1.1 oski.ch.5.2.1 oski.ch.6.1.1 oski.ch.6.3.2 oski.ch.7.1.1
rev.ch.22.3.2 rev.ch.23.5.1 rev.ch.24.3.1 rev.ch.24.4.8 rev.ch.25.1.1 rev.ch.25.4.1 rev.ch.26.3.3 rev.ch.27.2.1 rev.mc.2011.jan.1.8 rev10.ch.11.3.1 rev10.ch.12.3.4 rev10.ch.12.4.1 rev10.ch.13.3.3 rev10.ch.14.3.1 rev10.ch.9.1.1 rev10.ch.9.3.4
shogi.ch.2.1.1 shogi.ch.2.2.1 shogi.ch.2.2.2 shogi.cv.MINISHOGI.3.1.1 shogi.cv.MINISHOGI.3.2.1
soccer.ch.18.2.2 soccer.ch.18.3.4 soccer.ch.19.4.1 soccer.ch.19.4.2 soccer.ch.19.4.4 soccer.ch.19.4.6 soccer.ch.20.2.2 soccer.ch.20.3.3 soccer.ch.20.3.4 soccer.ch.20.4.5 soccer.ch.20.4.7 soccer.ch.21.1.1 soccer.ch.21.2.1 soccer.ch.21.3.2 soccer.ch.21.3.4 soccer.ch.21.4.1 soccer.ch.22.1.1 soccer.ch.22.2.1 soccer.ch.22.3.2 soccer.ch.22.3.4 soccer.ch.22.4.1 soccer.ch.22.4.4 soccer.ch.23.3.1 soccer.ch.23.4.4 soccer.mc.2009.jul.2.1 soccer.mc.2011.sep.1.18
twixt.ch.19.1.1 twixt.ch.20.1.1 twixt.ch.21.1.1 twixt.ch.22.1.1 twixt.ch.23.1.1 twixt.ch.23.2.2 twixt.ch.23.3.3 twixt.ch.23.3.4 twixt.ch.23.4.2 twixt.ch.23.4.4 twixt.ch.24.1.1 twixt.ch.24.3.1 twixt.ch.24.3.3 twixt.ch.25.1.1 twixt.ch.25.4.2 twixt.ch.25.4.6 twixt.ch.26.1.1 twixt.ch.27.1.1 twixt.ch.27.4.3 twixt.ch.28.1.1 twixt.ch.28.4.2 twixt.ch.28.4.6 twixt.ch.29.1.1 twixt.ch.29.3.1
ut.brkthr.414.1.1 ut.chess.157.1.4 ut.chess.220.1.1 ut.chess.367.1.1 ut.connect6.271.1.1 ut.dots.88.1.6 ut.dvonn.389.1.1 ut.dvonn.59.2.1 ut.einstein.101.2.1 ut.einstein.109.2.1 ut.einstein.182.2.1 ut.einstein.253.1.2 ut.einstein.253.2.1 ut.einstein.296.2.1 ut.einstein.327.1.5 ut.einstein.339.2.1 ut.einstein.366.1.3 ut.einstein.411.1.3 ut.einstein.51.3.1 ut.einstein.536.1.6 ut.fir.178.1.1 ut.fir.302.1.4 ut.fir.302.2.1 ut.gmk.397.1.1 ut.gmk.410.1.1 ut.go9.340.1.2 ut.go9.340.2.1 ut.go9.408.1.2 ut.gwg.164.1.3 ut.havannah.47.1.2 ut.hex.252.1.5 ut.hex.252.2.2 ut.loa.315.1.6 ut.loa.315.2.1 ut.shogi.326.1.1 ut.shogi.329.1.1 ut.shogi.416.1.1 ut.soccer.204.1.1 ut.soccer.206.1.1 ut.soccer.215.1.1 ut.soccer.256.1.1 ut.soccer.350.1.1 ut.soccer.357.1.1 ut.soccer.400.1.2 ut.soccer.65.1.10 ut.soccer.73.2.1 ut.wyps.341.1.1
wyps.ch.10.1.1 wyps.ch.4.2.1 wyps.ch.5.1.1 wyps.ch.6.1.1 wyps.ch.8.2.1 wyps.ch.9.1.1 wyps.cv.ascending.5.1.1 wyps.cv.ens.7.1.1 wyps.cv.ens.8.1.1 wyps.cv.fr.8.1.1 wyps.mc.2010.feb.2.1